by Adam Jones

So, what are the odds that I will contract typhoid in Guatemala? This, not the early over/under of the Papajohns.com Bowl between South Florida and East Carolina, is the dominant question of the day. Seeing as my travel over the new year to Central America has been planned for months, yet I am negligently already within the four-week preferred window for typhoid inoculation, I need to know if I will be sipping a cool drink on a forested veranda in Antigua or if I will be dying a slow and miserable death about the time that Houston and South Carolina kick off the Auto Zone Liberty Bowl.

So I ask you again: What are the odds?

Much to my astonishment, the powers running NCAA Division I football have made one correct step: they have invited 64 teams into the post-season. Someone must have read a memo somewhere noting that this was a crafty marketing ploy the NCAA Division I basketball committee uses to generate rabid fan interest and sublime television revenues. The guys in the football marketing department didn't quite get all of the details, of course. Like the provision that the 64 teams will be seeded in four tournament divisions and winners will move onward to determine a champion on the field of play. Instead, the championship game has conveniently been decided and the also-rans will play in a series of increasingly less meaningless games as December comes to a close and brings life to the festival of idiotic sports exhibition known as New Year's Day. Continuing to be both naive and hopelessly addicted to the greatest game God ever invented, I will watch every second of this pointless charade and so will most of you. Well, I'll TiVo it anyway, probably during salsa lessons or while climbing a volcano that could go off at any minute, or perhaps while waiting in a doctor's office recommended by the U.S. Consulate in a desperate attempt at securing antibiotics in broken yet clear and enthusiastic Texas Spanglish gleaned from two forgettable years of classroom experience at the University of Texas and a post-graduate fellowship in placing coherent orders at the La Mexicana Bakery on South First Street. Como se dice Amoxycillin in Espanol?

Welcome, friends, to the JonesTop Ten Bowl Preview 2006.

This is the one time each year when I actually preview each game and provide you with the final score. Over time, my bowl game accuracy has been roughly what you would achieve by firing BBs into the wind. Of course, if you joined this forum purely seeking gambling advice, then you are well beyond hope and need intervention. There are, believe it or not, 32 different bowl games this season and since I am not being paid by any major news outlet to be fair and objective, I will parse them down considerably. This year I used the following criteria, from best to worst:

1. BCS National Championship Game

2. Other BCS games or bowl games with participants jockeying to be in the final top ten.

3. Games between solid football teams who would otherwise not meet or that feature a particularly compelling player.

4. Well, the Chamber of Commerce president is a big football fan and he put together this committee...

5. Bowl games watched only by the mother of the starting quarterback and the poor corporate sap in the suit who gives away the giant check to the Salvation Army at halftime.

My apologies in advance to the mothers of the starting quarterbacks for the following teams:

South Florida, East Carolina, Southeast Carolina-Florida, New Mexico, San Jose State, Middle Central Tennessee (or is it Middle Central Michigan?), Purdue and Maryland - yes I know they are BCS schools, South Carolina, Houston, Western Michigan, Cincinnati, Ohio, Southern Mississippi, Sweet Briar, Grinell and the U.S. Coast Guard Academy.

Whose idea was it to schedule bowls on January ?6^th (International Bowl from Toronto) and? January 7th (GMAC Bowl from Mobile). Do you really think the Ohio v. Southern Miss game will steal viewers from the NFL preview shows on ESPN? Or the Finnish curling finals for that matter.

In addition to the silliness of bowl season, we have now completed another ridiculous round of college football awards. I have no complaint about Troy Smith and his Heisman Trophy, but given that most of us are in agreement about the nation's outstanding player, then how does Brady Quinn win both the Walter Camp and Maxwell Awards, both ostensibly for player of the year. It must have been due to him leading Notre Dame to victory in their biggest games of the year against USC and Michigan.

More curious is Paul Posluszny, who won the Bednarik for best defensive player. ?The Penn State linebacker clearly was one of the nation's best players...last season. This season he arguably wasn't even the best linebacker on his own team, much less the country, given that the Butkus Award for best linebacker went not to Posluzny, but to the more deserving Patrick Willis of Ole Miss.

There were others I could get into, including one that will get me hate mail from my fellow alums when I assert that Reggie Nelson was clearly the outstanding defensive back in the nation this year, but I would note a couple of committees that almost always get it right. The two awards voted on by the Football Writers Association of America (and no, I am not a member) are the Nagurski, for best defensive player, which went to Ohio State's James Laurinaitis and the Outland, for best interior lineman, which went to Wisconsin's road grader tackle Joe Thomas. Nice calls on both.

There remains one bit of idiocy to be determined. That is the Randy Moss Award, given to the best return man in the nation after the bowls have concluded. Randy Moss? Return man? OK, he did lead Division I-AA in kickoff returns once, but he's hardly the pre-eminent return man in college football history (Johnny Rodgers anyone?, Rocket Ismail, Desmond Howard...Deion Freaking Sanders perhaps?). What? Was he the only celebrity who agreed to show up to the telecast? Or is he being honored with a namesake award due instead to the voluminous contributions he made to the community as a student athlete? Maybe we could name an award after Art Schlichter and award it to the best player in the nation majoring in probability and statistics?

Now that all the important awards are out of the way, it is time once again for the JonesTop Ten Underappreciated Player of the Year Award. This allows you, the reader, to cast your ballot for the best college football player barely noticed and not adequately appreciated by the general public. Please send your selection to jonestopten@sbcglobal.net. Past winners have included Wes Welker, Darryl Tapp and Patrick Willis. And the nominees:

Jarrett Dillard, Rice wide receiver: Not only is Rice going to a bowl game this season, they are doing it behind a very deserving Biletnikof Finalist who scored 20 touchdowns receiving on the year. Rice, you know the school that basically ran the veer last season? Rice.

Jon Abbatte, Wake Forest linebacker: Can a single emotional leader turn a 5-6 football team into the ACC champion? I am not sure one couldn't in this crazy game.

Brian Leonard, Rutgers fullback: Leonard was a star at Rutgers before Ray Rice showed up. His profile lessened considerably and he accepted this status for the good of the team, but he still made perhaps the clutch play of the season on a 26-yard swing pass on the crucial drive to beat Louisville. Not only is he the consummate team player, he also won the Draddy Award this year as the nation's top academic football player.

Honorable mention nominees are Buster Davis, who makes me wonder how a dominating defensive player from Florida State can be completely ignored by the All-American teams, until I remember that the exact same thing happened to Broderick Bunkley last year (it's not their fault the Seminole offense reeks) and the Oklahoma offensive line, which had zero business being the foundation for a consistently good rushing attack that led to an unlikely Big 12 title. Nice work, guys.

TCU and Northern Illinois are about to tee it up. Let's get on with the show.

 

Poinsettia

Northern Illinois 20

TCU 28 (-12.5)

OK, actually it is the "San Diego County Credit Union" Poinsettia Bowl. It has now officially taken over the worst corporate bowl name distinction from the "Poulan Weedeater Independence Bowl," which I wrongly assumed had retired the trophy. This will be a good one, TCU has quietly had a tremendous last half of the season and their excellent rushing defense will be tested by Garrett Wolfe, who the viewing audience will get to see one last time as he finishes a remarkable career.

Las Vegas

Brigham Young 49 (-4.5)

Oregon 17

Oregon is on a three game skid and two of the losses were embarrassing. Brigham Young can do no wrong and their quarterback, John Beck, probably should have been an underappreciated player nominee; only Hawaii's Colt Brennan has a better pass efficiency rating. All of this and three guesses which team's players are more likely to stay out on the Strip too late and you have all the ingredients of a blowout.

New Orleans

Rice 31(-6.5)

Troy 21

Rice is in a bowl game? Seriously.

Hawaii

Hawaii 52 (-7.5)

Arizona State 35

Quick tip, if Hawaii is playing in the Hawaii Bowl, then bet Hawaii. They are the one team you can be sure will not spend too much time on the beach. When Hawaii is playing a historically underachieving program in the Hawaii Bowl, bet a lot on Hawaii. If the underachieving opponent just fired their coach, then dip into your savings to bet on Hawaii. If Colt Brennan is playing quarterback for Hawaii, then bet Hawaii and bet the over (which is a ridiculous 74.5 the last time I checked it).

Emerald

UCLA ?9 (-4.5)

Florida State? 0

Is there a coach in the nation who looks more ready to suit it up and play for his team than UCLA's Karl Dorrell? If there is it certainly isn't Bobby Bowden. The Bruins and their terrific set of defensive ends, Justin Hickman and Bruce Davis, will make life miserable for the worst offense in Bowden's history at FSU. Hey, if Wake can shut them out, then why can't UCLA?

Independence

Oklahoma State 20 (-2.5)

Alabama 16

Let me get this straight. Two major conference teams, both of whom are 6-6 on the year, will meet in Shreveport, Louisiana to determine which of them will have a losing season. Sounds like compelling television to me. My only question is what poor angel second-class up in heaven has to interrupt Bear Bryant's weekly gin rummy game to inform him of this. This game barely made the inclusion criteria. Truth be told, my brother being an Oklahoma State grad put it over the top.

Holiday

Texas A&M 24

California 27 (-5.5)

Interesting match-up, at their best Cal is one of the most gifted teams in the nation and should roll Texas A&M. On the other hand, if you give Cal a good solid punch in the mouth then their gifts don't appear so evident. The Aggies will hit them in the mouth and hang around in this one- that's what they do best. The game may be decided by a DeSean Jackson kick return, which might even win him the Randy Moss Award.

Texas

Rutgers 35 (-7.5)

Kansas State 24

Rutgers deserves better than to play in a game no one will see. This game, along with the Insight Bowl, is being carried by the NFL Network, which means millions of viewers, including Time Warner Cable subscribers in my city, will not have access to it. A better question might be why anyone needs to go to great lengths to obtain the NFL network to watch a COLLEGE football game. I will dispense with the rest of this anti-corporate screed to note that Rutgers is one of the great stories of the last several college football seasons and, if motivated, which I assume they will be, are a better team than Kansas State, who nonetheless does boast an exciting freshman quarterback named Josh Freeman.

 

Music City

Clemson 27 (-10.5)

Kentucky 20

How do you pick a bowl game intelligently when you have no idea what will transpire in the month-long wait between games and how many players will simply lose interest and motivation to play in a meaningless exhibition? I think this affliction is more likely to hit Clemson, who aspired to greatness and fell short, than it is to hit Kentucky, who may well be happy to be in the Music City Bowl. Nevertheless, an unmotivated Clemson is still a better team than a motivated Kentucky.

Sun

Oregon State 38 (-3.5)

Missouri 20

Terrible line, Oregon State should be favored by much more. The Beavers will come out stoked and Missouri won't. That's my story and I am sticking to it.

Insight

Texas Tech (-6.5)

Minnesota

Texas Tech is the better team and I think they will cover. But I am boycotting the pick because this game is on the NFL Network.

Meineke Car Care

Navy 35

Boston College 26 (-6.5)

Navy, led, of course, by Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, probably does not match up so well with Boston College, but I have to give them the nod on the strength of the "happier to be here" rule. These Navy seniors are among the best in the school's history. In addition, BC is down one coach, Tom O'Brien, having completely taken leave of his senses to take the job at North Carolina State. What is he thinking? If all of these factors weren't enough, my son read A Civil War this fall, which brings a tear to my eye just thinking about it. ?

Alamo

Texas 24 (-11.5)

Iowa 28

Boy will I catch hell for this. Not only do I think Reggie Nelson had a better year than did Aaron Ross, I also think Texas will lose a game in which they are a double-digit favorite. I know Texas better than any other team and if they come out and play fast, loose and motivated then they will beat Iowa by five touchdowns and head for the Riverwalk to waste away in Margaritaville searching for their lost shaker of salt. But that won't happen. What will happen is that Texas will come out bored, inattentive and resentful of being in the Alamo Bowl and get beat by a pretty terrible Hawkeye squad. Oh, and Texas may start a walk-on at quarterback just for good measure.

Peach

Georgia 18

Virginia Tech 15 (-3.5)

This game is the Peach Bowl; everyone say it silently to yourself. It is not the Chik-Fil-A Bowl. I don't care how many cows parachute into how many college football stadiums at outrageous television advertising rates, the game played in Atlanta, Georgia at the end of each December will always be the Peach Bowl. This one will be good, if you like defense anyway. Georgia will pull the upset, six field goals to five.

MPC Computers

Miami 38 (-3.5)

Nevada 7

Most folks may pick Nevada to upset a dispirited Miami team and their fired coach, Larry Coker. I expect the opposite. This is the first time all year the 'Canes will play with nothing to lose and nothing hanging over their heads. They love their new head coach, defensive coordinator Randy Shannon. Oh, and lots of pro scouts will be watching. Miami should let Kirby Freeman fling the ball randomly all over the field. At some point, someone will catch it.

Outback

Tennessee 28 (-4.5)

Penn State 17

Great match-up of a Penn State team that played right up to the edge of its potential in going 8-4 with a much depleted cupboard after last year's Big Ten championship. Tennessee was resurgent under offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe and a new and improved Erik Ainge throwing to a re-charged Robert Meachem. Tennessee is a fair bit better on paper and I think they will play focused football in a New Year's Bowl that has been traditionally a very good game.

Cotton

Auburn 13 (-3.5)

Nebraska 17

Something has been missing with Auburn all year and the Cotton is a disappointment for them. For Nebraska, this is the next step in their journey back to the top ten. The Cornhuskers will score just enough points to pull this one out.

Gator

West Virginia 34 (-7.5)

Georgia Tech 21

Georgia Tech's rush defense is tremendous but they have never seen anything like Pat White-who will be back on the field for West Virginia-and Steve Slaton. Wait a second, yes they have. Georgia Tech played Clemson with James Davis and C.J. Spiller. How did that turn out for them? The Mountaineers will be geeked for this one and will find enough seams in the Tech defense to win.

 

Capital One

Arkansas 35 (pick)

Wisconsin 38

Wow. Not only is this the best non-BCS bowl game going, you also get to guess which washed-up musical act will perform at half-time (my money is on Poison). Arkansas and Wisconsin both made their fans proud this year with some spirited play in seasons that started with uncertainty. Wisconsin does not fit the stereotypical mold of the Big Ten in that they have great team speed and will give Arkansas fits. The only thing that worries me is that I am betting against my favorite player of 2006, the Razorback Tail-Quarter-Wingback Darren McFadden, who also boasts the nation's best nickname: Run DMC.

Whatever happened to great nicknames, anyway? Today you simply generate a nickname by taking the first letter of the first name and the first syllable of the last name and, voila, you got a nickname. Sometimes, you have to elongate the second vowel sound, but not always. This would render the Galloping Ghost as "R-Grain" (coming soon from Kelloggs, a delicious bran cereal...). Either that or we just use initials. LaDanlian Tomlinson surely deserves more than to be simply called L.T. doesn't he? Why should he have a boring nickname that he has to share with Lawrence Taylor? Dick "Night Train" Lane would be embarrassed, as would Whizzer White, the Tyler Rose, the Manster and Refrigerator Perry.

NOTE: Whizzer White actually didn't get his nickname because he was fast. He got tagged with it for his unseemly habit of urinating on the sidelines during games. All of this was covered up prior to his Senate confirmation hearings to be a Supreme Court Justice.

Rose

USC 20 (-1.5)

Michigan 14

USC and Michigan are disappointed to end the season in the Rose Bowl. What will college football give us next? I actually think Michigan is the better team, but I also think the long layoff will leave their offense out of synch and Pete Carroll will bring a better game plan. Betting on Pete Carroll over Lloyd Carr-I really go out on a limb sometimes, huh?

Fiesta

Oklahoma 28 (-7.5)

Boise State 13

When this pairing was announced, I thought Oklahoma was Boise State's worst nightmare. Actually State will likely give the Sooners a reasonable game and could even pull the upset. What I think will happen is that OU will just flat be too physical for the Broncos to hold up at the point of attack for a full 60 minutes.

Orange

Louisville 27 (-9.5)

Wake Forest 23

How can I pick against America's sweetheart? It's not easy, but I do think Louisville has just the kind of speedy and multi-dimensional offense that can give Wake problems. The Demon Deacons will make it close, but their dream season will end in defeat.

Sugar

Notre Dame 17

LSU 45 (-8.5)

Here's a novel thought, Notre Dame blown out by an athletically superior team on national television. So far the Irish are two for two this season. LSU will make it a trifecta of disappointment. JaMarcus Russell against the Notre Dame secondary, the mind reels.

 

BCS Championship Game

Florida 17

Ohio State 27 (-7.5)

Destiny conferred. Ohio State has been consistently the best team on offense and defense for an entire season and it will continue in Glendale. Florida will manufacture some points and will likely make a couple of big defensive plays, but Ohio State is one of the most calm, cool and collected crews I've ever seen. Troy Smith will pull them through.